Moore’s law: Sixty years from now, computers will be one trillion times faster

NASA-fysikern Thomas Campbell om datorhastighetens utveckling kommande år:

Sixty years from now, computers will be (assuming Moore’s law) one trillion (that’s twelve orders of magnitude) times faster and more capable than they are today. Better yet, that improvement factor of one trillion is likely to be an outrageous understatement given the high probability that multiple breakthrough technologies will be discovered during that time span.

That is more number crunching power than we can conceive of. The only thing we can say for sure about what we will be doing with a trillion times the present computational power is that it is beyond our comprehension to imagine. Can you imagine this: Our children and grandchildren will be living in a world that is today totally unimaginable to us? That is how quickly things are changing and the process continues to accelerate.

Only ninety years from now, near the end of the present century, Moore’s law predicts our computers will be a million trillion times faster than today’s computers. What do you think your grandchildren, great grandchildren, and AI Guy (artificial intelligence) are going to be doing with that much digital capability? On the other hand, even with breakthroughs, processing speed could go asymptotic long before thay reach an improvement factor of 10^18 – who knows? What I do know is that within a single human lifespan, AI Guy and the future applications of digital computing will most likely be vastly different from anything that we could possible imagine, even in our wildest dreams.


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