”You are either a contrarian or a victim” – Rick Rule
Bostrom tipsade om följande artikel i kommentarfältet igår: A Rare Anomaly in the Gold Market
Artikeln tar upp förhållandet mellan de största guldbolagens marknadsvärden i förhållande till dess ‘book value’ (BV):
BV is equal to stockholders’ equity on the balance sheet, and is the theoretical value of a company’s assets minus liabilities – sometimes you’ll hear this called ”net asset value” (NAV)
Som om det inte fanns nog med tecken på att sektorn är extremt undervärderad, enligt deras uträkning handlas de största guldbolagen nu generelt under deras ‘book value’:
We analyzed the book value of all publicly traded gold producers with a market cap of $1 billion or more. The final list comprised 31 companies. We then charted book values from January 1, 2007 through last Thursday, June 27 (index equally weighted). Here’s what we found.
This chart makes clear the current dramatic undervaluation of gold stocks.
- As a group, gold producers are now selling below their book value.
- Based on this metric, gold stocks are now cheaper than they were at the depths of the 2008 waterfall selloff.
- The chart doesn’t show it, but gold stocks were trading above book value (about 1.1x) when gold bottomed at $255.95 on April 2, 2001, which was the beginning of the bull market.
Here’s an even more dramatic fact:
- We went back as far as 1997 and could not find one episode where gold producers as a group traded below book value – and the late ’90s was known as the ”nuclear winter” for the gold mining industry!
Needless to say, we’re in rare territory.