Viktigaste händelsen för guldmarknaden sedan 2005

Om Schweiz röstar ja idag kommer det att vara viktigaste händelsen för guldmarknaden sedan augusti 2005 när Andrey Bykov, Putins ekonomiske rådgivare träffade GATA i Yukon (mer info om det här). SNB kommer vid en ja röst är tvingade att köpa 1,500 ton på bara fem år (25 ton per månad) vilket motsvarar majoriteten av den årliga guldproduktionen över denna tidsperiod.

Enligt min research har Ryssland sedan 2005 varit den enda stora köparen av guld senaste tio åren, stor nog att påverka priser kort sikt, de har köpt guld för ca en halv miljard dollar varje månad och guldpriset började stiga exakt när Putin annonserade att Ryssland skulle börja köpa och ta leverans, se graf nedan. Guldpriset steg 70% på ca 9 månader.

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SNB kommer att bli en betydligt större köpare än vad Ryssland var, Rysslands köp har legat kring 5 ton per månad, SNBs kommer ligga kring 25 ton. Så om Rysslands köp kunde få priset att stiga 70% på knappt tio månader, vad kan då SNBs köp leda till?

Nu återstår det att se huruvida det blir ett ja eller nej, många verkar tro att de största aktörerna vill se ett nej och lobbar för detta. Det är en felaktig slutsats imo. De som stått på köpsidan under alla dessa år priset hållits artificiellt lågt kommer sannolikt att vilja sälja tillbaka det när priset höjts tillräckligt mycket, då är det perfekt att ha en köpare som i förtid annonserat hur mycket de enligt lag är tvungna att köpa. Schweiz kommer sannolikt få ett väldigt dåligt snittpris eftersom de som dikterar priset kommer höja det långt innan Schweiz fått köpa någon större mängd.

 

Guld/Silver ration nära att nå mitt mål

I mitten av september låg G&S-ration vid en viktig nivå som jag skrev om här.  Text från inlägget:

Either silver will continue to underperform taking the gold/silver ratio to the next resistance at 80, or silver will begin to outperform and take the ratio back to support at 46. Looking at the volatility on the previous chart, moves between these levels tend to be quite violent….

Nu är vi nästan där (80), just nu vid 75,5. Efter att nivån vid 68 bröts har ration exploderat uppåt. Notera hur korta perioder ration hållit sig här senaste tjugo åren, bara några månader sammanlagt. Notera också hur fort ration vänt härifrån, vem vill missa något sådant igen, särskilt när det är så tydligt i grafen?

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Swiss Gold Referendum, bara dagar kvar part 2

Text från boken Gold Wars skriven av Ferdinand Lips: http://www.amazon.com/Gold-Wars-Battle-Against-Perspective/dp/0971038007

The Swiss franc had an attraction the dollar did not have. Its tie to gold could no longer be tolerated by the masters of a future new world order – Ferdinand Lips

The Enemy from Inside

The financial press of March 18, 1997, announced how a study group of the Swiss Department of Finance and the SNB had worked out proposals for a more profitable management of the Bank’s currency reserves, in other words, they had graduated to the modern central bank portfolio theory. In it’s 90th Annual Report closing December 31, 1997, the SNB gives an absolutely unsatisfactory explanation for lowering the gold reserve requirement. It said that the reduction to 25% was necessary because otherwise the gold lending activities would have compromised the SNB by violating the legal limits. Such a justification is hard to believe, but what is even harder to believe is that the SNB should resort to such a bogus explanation.

For me, a Swiss citizen whose family is Swiss on both parents side for as long as there are written records, this was betrayal. It was completely against Swiss traditional thinking and behavior. We Swiss have always been slow to adopt new foreign procedures, and, in particular, revolutions of such a fundamental nature. Of cource, there was the constant lameting and influencing by a destructive media. There is no doubt in my mind, however, that the main instigators for the change of mind came from overseas. Some foreign master planners with great experience and full of brilliant tactics must have suggested this course of action to Swiss central bankers, making this caper the envy of Clausewits or Sun-Tzu had they been alive. For the foreign manipulators, the last gold-backed currency, the Swiss Franc, was the only remaining obstacle to be removed from the path to the fairyland of a global fiat currency. Who needs a small country in the middle of the Alps to have the impertinence to own all that gold and to have the best currency? The treasure in the mountains had to be taken by an unususal maneuver.

When reading the following paragraphs, one should keep in mind that the main arena in which these events took place remained to be the war against gold. There is nothing else that worries the would-be masters of the world more than the power of gold. Throughout history there were many ambitious politicians who wanted to become the master of the universe. Today this dream still prevails in some arrogant minds. In order to create a world with one government, one central bank and one currency, the biggest and most important obstacle in the path of attaining that goal must be destroyed, and that is gold.

However, and as said before, the war against Switzerland, or the battle for the Swiss gold, was already won 1992, when the country joined the IMF. That was the decisive moment when the usually prudent and historically solid Swiss did not pay attention. What was to follow could be achieved relatively easily by the powerbrokers.

 

Silvermarknadens dollarvärde bara 0.25% av guldets

Kommentar av Ted Butler på Ed Steers blogg:

At current prices, there is $6.6 trillion worth of gold in the world and a little over $16 billion worth of silver. In other words, on a dollar (or any other currency) basis, there is more than 400 times more gold in the world than silver. Expressed differently, all the silver in the world is worth only one-quarter of one percent (0.25%) of what all the world’s gold is worth. Even by doubling the amount of silver by including coins and small bars (most of which will never be converted into 1,000 oz bars), one would still end up with the gold being worth 200 times what the silver is worth or silver being worth 0.5% of what the gold is worth. These are the most extreme valuation differences ever.

Like investors in everything else, precious metals investors seek out the best relative value available. Investors everywhere want the best value, lowest risk and biggest bang for their buck. Due to an increasingly obvious price manipulation on the COMEX, silver has reached a degree of undervaluation relative to gold that is so extreme as to be almost unbelievable, even when expressed in simple arithmetic terms. And because gold is so cheap compared to other asset classes, that automatically means silver is even cheaper compared to every other asset.Silver analyst Ted Butler: 22 November 2014

Bästa sammanfattningen om Kina jag sett

Länkade videoklippet i förra inlägget, men är kommer en inbäddning av det i enskilt inlägg. Informationen sammanfattar bra varför jag inte litar på någon data som kommer från det landet överhuvudtaget, särskilt inte den sk guldimporten. Btw, min gissning är att hela den Kinesiska inhemska produktionen av guld köps av västerländska intressen. Här är klippet:

Ang gårdagens reversal i guld & silver & lite annat

‘With a shortage, world investors will recognize the rarity of silver’

Kanske har postat denna artikel förut, men om någon missat, här är den igen (källa):

– World gold stocks are around 5 billion ounces and silver around 1 to 2 billion ounces. I say with conviction that silver is more rare than gold and, in my eyes, is the only precious metal. I think investors are beginning to understand that a shortage can develop easily in silver, but not so in gold, because it is not used that much industrially. It is a lot easier for people to pay $15 or $20 for an ounce than $900 or $1,000, especially when the cheap one has the most value.

If 90% of the world population knew this, the prices of silver and gold would be different. In the short term, with gold prices over $900, silver would be in the hundreds. Mr. Butler doesn’t like my numbers. He says that they are too extreme and people are going to lose confidence in my writing, but I hope he will not censor me, because this is my opinion. Silver in the hundreds of dollars will come only with a shortage of silver. The 4 or less shorts will give up. With a shortage, world investors will recognize the rarity of silver.

Gold and silver seem to trade together, tick by tick. It is easy for many people to think they are the same commodity. Not true. Gold and silver are very different, even if they behave now as one. I am certain that will change, and perhaps very soon. You don’t have to look very far to see just how different silver is from gold.

Some of you want to hear how I see the future in silver prices and what I think about the world in my crystal ball.

(1) Life expectancy will rise tremendously and most of you will live over 100 in years to come.

(2) It will be very important to save and prepare for a long life.

(3) Investment in education—-silver—-farmland, in my opinion, will do the best.

(4) At some point, in 15 to 20 years, silver prices will be 5 times higher than gold prices. If my calculation is correct, a dollar invested in silver will do many times better than gold. In real estate value, I think 1,000 ounces of silver will buy a 3-bedroom apartment in Manhattan in Trump Towers.

I am a different thinker, and some gold investors don’t like my opinion, but that is their problem.

Those who believe in silver value should buy eagles and force the mint to work overtime.

Yamana Golds guld försvann plötsligt?

Det är vad det ser ut som i grafen nedan? Kolla raset, spikrakt ned, en kapitulation av sällan skådat slag. Vem är korkad nog att dumpa så mycket aktier på så kort tid? Ingen? Jaja, nu kommer allt trams igen om att det är ‘fund liquidation’ eller annat trams som massmedia pumpar ut för att övertyga massan om att raset är verkligt. Sanningen är att det inte behöver vara någon som sålt då det finns en aktör som dominerar handeln och därmed är ‘market maker’, med så stor andel av handeln är de själva det vi kallar för ‘marknaden’. ‘Market makern’ är kursdiktator och kan sätta i princip vilket pris de vill genom att bolla egna aktier mellan egna konton. Bara en väldigt liten del av den dagliga handeln på börsen är ‘verklig’ handel där aktier faktiskt förflyttas mellan olika ägare. Till vilka nivåer denna aktör vill sänka Yamana innan vändningen återstår att se. De som synar bluffen och är långsiktiga har hög potential att bli rikligt belönade.

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