‘The largest physical silver position in history’

Citerade några rader från Ted Butlers senaste artikel i ett tidigare inlägg, nu är hela artikeln släpp och finns att läsa här: The Perfect Crime December 29, 2014

If there is one thing that JPMorgan is expert at, given that it commands an army of lobbyists and has more government officials in its back pocket than any other entity on the face of the earth, it is the exploitation of US law and regulations. JPMorgan knew that US law dictated that the Mint must produce enough Silver (and Gold) Eagles to meet demand. That law was never intended to allow a single big buyer to demand the extraordinary amount of Silver Eagles that JPMorgan desired to buy, but that’s the purpose behind the exploitation of the law.

The Mint sells Silver Eagles at the prevailing price of silver on the day of the sale. In essence, the COMEX price of silver is the price of silver. By controlling the price of COMEX silver, JPMorgan sets the price at which it will buy Silver Eagles. It’s the perfect crime – JPMorgan sets the price of COMEX silver and then demands as many coins as the Mint and its suppliers can produce, even if that means producing the coins on a 24/7 basis. Hey, that’s the law. And remember when JPMorgan increased its COMEX short position in the summer, assuring that prices were about to drop and what occurred as a result? Sales of Silver Eagles nosedived temporarily and only resumed after prices were brought lower by this crooked bank.

‘JP Morgans perfect silver crime’

Text av Ted Butler från Ed Steers blogg

Back in the late 1970’s the Hunt Brothers accumulated close to 100 million oz of physical silver (and more in futures contracts) and were found to have manipulated the price of silver higher as a result of that accumulation. What makes the much larger accumulation of physical silver by JPMorgan today different is that it is the perfect crime.  

The Hunts were outsiders; JPMorgan is the ultimate insider. The Hunts ran afoul of the regulators; JPMorgan owns the regulators. The Hunts’ purchases were widely known; as far as I know, I’m the only one pointing to JPMorgan accumulating massive amounts of physical silver. The Hunts drove prices higher as they accumulated silver; JPMorgan, by virtue of its price control on the COMEX, has been able to accumulate silver on sharply declining prices. Talk about a stacked deck. 

Given that JPMorgan has such control over the U.S. regulators and is able to operate in near total secrecy in matters related to physical silver, it’s hard for me to imagine what could foil their perfect silver crime. All that’s missing is JPM selling out at extremely high silver prices. And considering that big banks, in essence, don’t have to report anything they don’t want to publicly report, I would be surprised if JPMorgan would even have to pay taxes if they made the many billions of dollars they seemed destined to make on silver to the upside.Silver analyst Ted Butler: 20 December 2014

Silvermarknadens dollarvärde bara 0.25% av guldets

Kommentar av Ted Butler på Ed Steers blogg:

At current prices, there is $6.6 trillion worth of gold in the world and a little over $16 billion worth of silver. In other words, on a dollar (or any other currency) basis, there is more than 400 times more gold in the world than silver. Expressed differently, all the silver in the world is worth only one-quarter of one percent (0.25%) of what all the world’s gold is worth. Even by doubling the amount of silver by including coins and small bars (most of which will never be converted into 1,000 oz bars), one would still end up with the gold being worth 200 times what the silver is worth or silver being worth 0.5% of what the gold is worth. These are the most extreme valuation differences ever.

Like investors in everything else, precious metals investors seek out the best relative value available. Investors everywhere want the best value, lowest risk and biggest bang for their buck. Due to an increasingly obvious price manipulation on the COMEX, silver has reached a degree of undervaluation relative to gold that is so extreme as to be almost unbelievable, even when expressed in simple arithmetic terms. And because gold is so cheap compared to other asset classes, that automatically means silver is even cheaper compared to every other asset.Silver analyst Ted Butler: 22 November 2014

‘$15 billion worth of world silver inventories’

Samtidigt tog Alibaba in $8 miljarder i en finansiering (länk), halva värdet av den totala mängden silver inventories varav bara en liten del tillgängligt att köpa. Hoppas det framgår hur löjligt lite silver det finns där ute i förhållande till mängden luftpengar som skapas ur intet varje dag. Mer om hur extremt tajt silvermarknaden är läs senaste av Ted Butler:

I remain amazed that the world continues to miss the most important distinction between gold and silver, namely, how much of each exists. After all, something has to explain why the world’s investors are completely unaware of the physical and financial facts surrounding silver. I’ll tell you straight out – if there were only $15 billion worth of gold inventories in the world, I’d probably be a bigger gold bull than silver bull – if you can imagine that.

Fifteen billion dollars is such a pitifully small amount for what might exist in world inventories for either gold or silver that it would be reason enough to buy either if that valuation applied. Well, it does apply to silver and doesn’t apply to gold where the amount of gold in the world is measured in the trillions of dollars ($6.5 trillion, to be precise). Furthermore, very little of the $15 billion worth of world silver inventories is available for sale – according to ETF and inventory flows. I can’t prove it, but I doubt that if someone tried to buy just one billion dollars’ worth of physical silver currently (60 million oz), the transaction could not be completed below $30.Silver analyst Ted Butler: 19 November 201

Viktig historielektion för silverinvesterare (reblogged)

Posted on

Sentimentet är sämsta på mycket länge, tekniskt ser det illa ut och priset är inne i en kapitulationsfas, men före man tar några beslut gällande sin silverposition kan det vara värt att titta på vad som hänt historiskt för detta har hänt förut. 1970, före den historiska uppgången för silverpriset på över 3,000% såg det riktigt illa ut tekniskt, priset hade precis brutit ned i en stor triangelformation och rasade snabbt 20%, se graf:

silverbreakdown2

Det var säkerligen många som sålde där pga teknisk analys, men de fick snabbt ångra sig då silver strax efter att ha brutit ned satte sin sista botten före en enorm uppgångsfas, se graf:

silverbreakdown1970

Detta är vad som hände då och kan vara en varningssignal för dem som försöker ta TA på för stort allvar istället för att ha fokuset på fundamenta. TA sa sälj, FA sa köp, samma mönster utspelar sig nu ca 45 år senare. Silverpriset har brutit ned genom en stödnivå som etablerats senaste året, se graf:

silvertoday

Samtidigt ser fundamenta ser väldigt bra ut, bör man sälja? Är det värt att ta beslut på TA i en marknad där prissättningen styrs av en aktör? Rent logiskt bör TA skrika sälj före en stor uppgång baserat på hur priset sätts, inte bara är det logiskt, historia visar att så är fallet.

Kommer samma scenario utspelas nu som det gjorde 1970? Ted Butler säger att kommande botten kommer att bli den sista botten före priset rusar mot nya höjder, precis som det gjorde 1970, enligt honom beror detta på tillgång efterfrågan dvs fundamenta och det gick säkerligen att se samma indikationer 1970. Personligen blir jag inte förvånad om de som styr priset skapat dessa stödnivåer för att skrämma ut silverinvesterare som glor för mycket på tekniska nivåer, om denna teori är korrekt är det vi ser nu väldigt positivt.

‘This is the trade to end all trades’

Asrael på ädelmetallforum länkade följande chart från tradingview i silverspottråden: 30-year cup & handle breakout?

Personen som postat grafen tar åter upp den enorma formationen i silvergrafen som ser ut att vara en cup- & handleformation. Ta det med en stor nypa salt, tekniska formationer kan endast användas som ett komplement till fundamenta. Enda anledningen till att jag ser någon form av värde i grafen är för att fundamenta pekar åt samma håll och detta är därför ett möjligt scenario som kan utspelas. Formationen i sig spelar inte så stor roll förutom att den kanske kan ge någon form av indikation när saker och ting kan inträffa.

Jag har skapat en egen version av grafen med citaten från orginalet och lite annat:

silverkoppen

‘We are set up for violent price reversals to the upside for silver’

Uppdatering av läget från Ted Butler:

We are set up for violent price reversals to the upside for silver and for all the COMEX/NYMEX metals. Maybe the setup can get stretched out a little longer, but it looks stretched out enough to me by historical standards. We’ve gone too low in price on too many important commodities as a result of this stupid and manipulative machine trading. There’s a payback and a counter-reaction to the price distortions we’ve witnessed and it seems to me that the payback is at hand.

I think the technical funds have been lulled into a sense of complacency, particularly in silver, by how easy the commercials have let them off the hook when they held extreme short positions recently. But just because the commercials have let the technical funds buy back shorts at prices close to upside penetrations of important moving averages previously, doesn’t mean that will always be the case.  Just because the technical funds think they will be able to buy back silver shorts near the $18 mark, that doesn’t necessarily make it so. The commercials can demand much higher prices before selling.  There will come a day when the commercials won’t be nearly as accommodative to the technical funds as they had been previously and that will be a great day for silver investors. That day seems at hand to me.Silver analyst Ted Butler: 29 October 2014